Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Democrats Gain, But GOP Keeps House

A new Gallup poll shows Democrats leading Republicans 50%-43% in a generic House race. While that could signal dramatic Democratic gains in the House, Gallup's experience shows that an 11 point lead is necessary for a Democratic takeover.

The truth is that congressional districts are so partisan these days that national polls are often misleading. It's not likely but possible that the Democrats could lead by a significant margin in the national polls and lose seats, especially if they are retiring more incumbents than the GOP.


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