Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Who Do We Hate More?


In New Jersey, not too many names are thrown around in relation to the 2008 presidential race. Garden Staters are mostly excited or dismayed by the anticipated Hillary Clinton candidacy, and still others assume that Hillary's challenger will be the 9/11 hero in former Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Nevertheless, the above case is highly unlikely. Although Clinton does enjoy a substantial lead in the polls and could possibly win the Democratic nomination, Guiliani, as well as Governor George Pataki, can count himself out of the 2008 election. Unless the 2006 midterms go terribly for the GOP, they are in no position to compromise by nominating a moderate candidate over a true party man, such as Bill Frist, or more interestingly, Jeb Bush.


However, the candidacy of another Bush would probably not be good news for Republicans. If there's one name the nation will hate more than Clinton in 2008 it's Bush. The nomination of yet another member of a politically elite family would convince voters that the GOP is out of touch. Although Hillary is not the strongest candidate the Democrats have, the Republicans would be foolish to dismiss the truth that even her strongest suppporters understand: the only way Hillary can win is if she runs against somebody that the nation hates more than her.

The last thing the GOP wants is an election that is essentially a referendum on the policies of the 90's vs the policies of the first eight years of the 21st century.

5 Comments:

At 2:05 PM, Blogger Enlighten said...

Who do we hate more? - great title. Is this the sort of thing you’re picking up in the senator’s office? What’s the point of your post – Jeb Bush says he’s not running for president?

What policy of the 90's did you most like - welfare reform?

 
At 3:42 PM, Blogger Jack said...

Oh..enlighten, so skeptical. Jeb Bush says he's not running for president the ways dozens of presidential candidates before him have said.

The point of my post, which, according to the unwritten rules of the blogosphere, is actually unnecessary, is that Hillary's only hope of winning in a general election is if she is facing an opponent that generates even more contempt than she does.

Now, if Pres. Bush has a great 2nd term, than his brother might be a popular candidate. However, if it's a dismal term, than Jeb would run the danger of being associated with him.

The voters, not the political analysts, tend to associate good economic times with good government policy. That is why the 90's triumphs over the 00's.

 
At 9:09 PM, Blogger Mr. Snitch said...

Enlighten has a point: the POV inside the nucleus of the Jersey Dems (which is more or less where you are) is not indicative of public opinion. I am amazed how often politicians think taking the public's temperature means asking the office assistant what she thinks. (Side note: Hoboken's Mayor Roberts probably has the opposite problem - he hears too many voices and can't weight thrie importance.)

Bush does have negative numbers now. That comes from being in the middle of a war. Any war, pick one: World War Two, Korea, the Civil War - they do a job on your numbers. That does not mean a majority 'hates Bush' (Some DO, obviously, but having depressed numbers and being an unelectable candidate are not the same thing.)

The economy is quietly picking up. Iraq could look a lot different a year or so from now. Housing prices, for the time being, are soaring (even if the bubble bursts they will have gained a lot in net value during Bush's term).

Anyway, none of this adds up to Jeb Bush being unelectable. Something else might, but not this. And remember: No one EVER said, "As Jersey goes, so goes the country".

 
At 10:27 PM, Blogger Sam said...

Jack -

Good post. I enjoy talk of 2008 possibilities and find this to be a good blogging issue for the recess period we're in now.

My guess - and I'd like to think it's a good one - is that Hillary will have a much harder time distancing herself from her last name than Jeb would, if we're operating under the assumption that these next three years go very poorly for his older brother. She not only played a significant role in President Clinton's policymaking, but also played a rather large part, as Bill's wife, in the scandalous aspect of his presidency that she will certainly have to confront in 2008. Jeb, on the other hand, has established himself on his own, or at least without the help of his brother. I don't see Jeb as a Robert Kennedy-like figure who was by his Presidential brother's side as a cabinet member during Jack's presidency. He is the Governor of Florida, and has been since well before his brother was President. Hillary began her political career only after eight years in her husband's White House. Who is more of a "family man" (or "family woman," I guess)?

I think that any real hatred of Jeb Bush - not just differences of opinions on the issues - is fueled primarily by his surname. The people who hate Hillary hate her for much more than her last name, and that hatred will hurt her more than his will hurt him.

 
At 1:34 PM, Anonymous Commie Killer said...

I would not vote for Jeb Bush, simply because of his name. Not because it is Bush, but because it isn't Frist. Bill Frist is a great man and a true patriot, and trying to save the life of that poor Christian girl against the will of those heathen doctors and Democrats is but one example. Bill Frist is the only candidate right now that can right the moral holocaust the liberals have been waging the past five decades, and only he can lead this great nation to its spiritual destiny.

 

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