Wednesday, August 24, 2005

Where Will This Red Go?

With the recent polls showing the President and the Congress at odds with public opinion, the likelihood that the Democrats may take back the Senate is increasing.

However, national sentiments aren't the only factors in statewide elections. In fact, they often prove to play a relatively insignificant role in many states. The U.S was strongly in favor of civil rights for blacks well before the deep south began to elect congressmen who represented these opinions. Nevertheless, the Democrats seem to have everything going there way in 2006 anyhow. Not only is there a lack of opposition from the GOP against incumbent Democrats, in those states that are leaning more and more against the Bush administration, but several Republican states have started to turn on Republican senators for various reasons...

Mark DeWine, of Ohio, is gearing up for a tough race in a state with the lowest rated governor in the country, Republican Bob Taft, who is widely anticipated to resign in disgrace in a matter of weeks. The Republicans there are associated more closely with corruption than Democrats in New Jersey, and apparently, Ohioans don't like corruption as much.

Conrad Burns, of Montana, is showing suprisingly low poll numbers and has been the target of a barrage of Democratic advertisements in recent weeks. Montana, which has a popular Democratic governor and a Democratic State House, could likely return to the days of populism and have two Democrats in the U.S Senate.

Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania needs to start moderating if he wants to have a chance next year. He's running against a man who not only has the name recognition that comes with being the son of a popular former governor, but received more votes than any other Pennsylvania official in state history. He was running for treasurer...

Lincoln Chafee does not get the kind of love that fellow New England moderates Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins get from their constituents. Why? Perhaps it's because he seems like a bit of a waffler. He openly pondered switching parties on election day 2004, and announced that he didn't vote for Bush or Kerry, and moreover, he is being attacked by Democrats for his campaign consultants, who are mainly former Bush workers.


At 11:05 AM, Blogger dkreiss said...

The opportunity for the Democrats to pick up the Senate is still a longshot. They need to win six seats, while defending three open seats (Minnesota, Maryland and Vermont; but Minnesota is going to be the real contest), and protecting at least four vulnerable incumbents (Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Bill Nelson of Florida, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan and Maria Cantwell of Washington.) John Corzine's successor in NJ is also not guaranteed to be a Dem (esp. if Kean's son is in the race).

The other eight opens are going to be rough (Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Montana, Tennessee, Missouri, Arizona, Maine and possibly Texas). Numbers for Dems look best in PN. The rest are toss ups to say the least, with the advantage to Republicans based on that sea of red.

At 8:36 PM, Anonymous Elyas Bakhtiari said...

Where did you get that map? I've been looking for something just like that, but I'd like to get accompanying data on the population density of each county. My friend has a theory that the division between red and blue is the division between city and country, and that map is just the thing we have been looking for to add to our discussion.

Shoot me an e-mail if you have any good resources.


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