Tuesday, February 07, 2006

The House Too?

Charlie Cook's survey projects an even brighter forecast for Democrats than was previously thought possible in these times of gerrymandered congressional districts and unbeatable incumbents. However, according to Cook's estimation, the Democrats are set to pick up 10 House seats. With a margin or error of +/- 4, the Democrats could be looking at 14 pick-ups in November. 15 would be the magic number necessary for control.

I don't know how to react to such predictions. But I do know that if the House was split with a virtual tie (1 or 2 seats), there would be strong efforts by both parties to get moderates to defect from the opposition. Chris Shays (R-CT) would certainly be targeted by Democrats, a long with several other northern members of the GOP. There are probably fewer potential Democratic defectors because the most conservative Democrats were wiped out by Tom DeLay last election.

Interesting analysis of congressional trends at MyDD. Voter knowledge heavily benefits the minority party.


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