Sunday, September 11, 2005

Hurricane Re-districting

Here is an intriguing story at Historians R Us. According to Jessica, the blogger, Katrina, which has displaced hundreds of thousands of New Orleans residents could have heavy political consequences for both the Louisianan and Texan political establishments. Louisiana, which is currently run by Democrats on a state and local level, is likely to lose many of its poorer residents, who are overwhelmingly Democratic, to Texas, which is currently hosting thousands of refugees in Houston and Dallas. Similarly, Texas, which is slightly Red, can expect an influx of Democrats.

Very interesting indeed. However, the situation is more promising for Republicans than Democrats. Although Texas is by far a more important state politically, the impact of the hurricane survivors in such a huge state is unlikely to be significant. Perhaps if many lower income Katrina victims concentrate in certain cities such as Houston or Dallas, which is very likely, they can have an affect on city politics, which is probably already Democratic. However, the political landscape could change dramatically in New Orleans and the surrounding parishes, where the wealthiest residents are the most likely to return to their previous lives. This could mean a Republican City Council, Republican mayor, and more Republicans in the state legislature.


At 12:16 AM, Blogger Aidan said...

Although this is an interesting analysis taking account of the redistribution of partisanship, I think much more of the political fallout will be better explained by peoples perceptions of which party should shoulder more of the blame for the poor handling of the pre and post disaster relief.

At 10:15 AM, Blogger Sergeant-At-Arms said...

Our president will probably try to ship them off to Guam, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Micronesia so there votes for democratic candidates won't effect the electoral college.


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