Tuesday, July 05, 2005

Bush's Approval Rating Down in Red States

The 2006 midterm election is not supposed to be a good one for Democrats. Most of the Republicans up for re-election are reliable incumbents in red states. However, new polls, conducted by Survey USA, are indicating that the ultimate symbol of the Republican Party, President George W. Bush, is suffering in "red states".
In Tennessee, where the young Congressman Harold Ford Jr. is expected to challenge a Republican for the soon-to-be vacant seat currently held by Majority Leader Bill Frist, Bush's disapproval rating is at a stunning 49%. Keep in mind that John Kerry did not visit Tennessee once during his presidential campaign. In Virginia, where first term Senator George Allen is anticipating a battle against the Democratic Governor Mark Warner, Bush's disapproval rating is also 49%. Most importantly, those who refer to themselves as moderates give the president a meager 40% approval rating.
Conservative blogger Jane Galt dismissed these cries of hope from Democratic bloggers as mathematically "improbable" since many of the Republican incumbents are from "safe" red states such as Texas, Virginia, Mississippi, Montana, and Utah. She also went on to list the "swing seats" that would have to be won for the democrats to gain control.
Although she is right about Mississippi, Montana, and Utah, her assumption that Virginia and Texas are safe is dubious. Although Texas and Virginia are conservative states, their voters are southern ones who do not abhor the word "Democrat" the way westerners in states such as Wyoming, Idaho, and Utah do.
Nevertheless, it's at least another year before members of either party can start legitimately speculating on the results of the elections, which will take place in November 2006. The truth is, if these polls are not indicators of the midterms, the Democrats could find themselves going the "way of the Whigs" come 2007.


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